Full Count, Week 9: 3 Players Worth Highlighting, 2 Things to Watch in SEC Chase

We’re halfway through the conference schedule and Mississippi State is tied for first. That means this team has something going for it, and we’ll discuss those pieces both here and on Dogpile, your favorite baseball podcast.

3 Players Worth Highlighting

Marshall Gilbert

His last four games, all of them starts: 4-for-10, 3 RBI, 2 homers, 4 walks. This production at the plate comes after only starting five times in the first seven weeks of the season — and still hitting .300 in inconsistent playing time.

Furthermore, Gilbert is looking mighty comfortable at third base for a guy who has spent his MSU career as a catcher, simply keeping loose in the infield on batting practice ground balls.

I did ask Chris Lemonis about Gilbert after the Sunday game and he said Gilbert has what it takes to be an everyday third baseman, yet he still expects some rotation there (Gunner Halter being the other guy) for matchup purposes. But later on, when I asked him about designated hitter and his personnel decisions there, he said he will roll with a hot hand when one presents itself. Gilbert could grow into that at third base given a couple more games.

Elijah MacNamee

Let’s run through what MacNamee has done since March 1, shall we?

 - Rolled up a 12-game hit streak, multiple hits in seven of those games and six of the 20 hits in that streak going for extra bases. He drove in 13 runs in those 12 games.

 - The game in which that hit streak broke? He walked three times. He kept walking (currently leads the team 28 of them in 37 games) and put together another 10-game hitting streak, amassing a 28-game reached base streak.

Photo by Aaron Cornia, Mississippi State Athletics

Photo by Aaron Cornia, Mississippi State Athletics

 - More recently, he had at least one hit and at least RBI in all three games of the Alabama series.

That’s all, just constantly reaching base, constantly hitting and doing so for six weeks. Casual.

Peyton Plumlee

My hope is Plumlee’s days of being the forgotten man are over. His combined line in his last two SEC starts: 10.1 innings, 6 hits and 5 walks allowed, 1 earned run allowed (0.87 ERA), 5 strikeouts. He even covered those 10.1 innings in 142 pitches, so it’s not out of the question that his current effectiveness could go out to 7 innings if his pitch count is allowed to get up to the 90s.

Ethan Small is undeniably awesome (a lot of talk about him on Dogpile, our baseball podcast, be on the lookout for that Monday afternoon) and JT Ginn sliding right back into the fold with ease gives this rotation the same 1-2 from before. But Plumlee being this rock solid as the current third option gives the Bulldogs a luxury that is beyond rare in college baseball.

2 Things to Watch in SEC Chase

(A quick note: these are the series that don’t involve MSU. The Bulldogs clearly have their chance to heavily influence the SEC chase with their next four series: at Arkansas April 18-20, Georgia April 26-28, at Texas A&M May 2-4 and Ole Miss May 10-12. But I figure you’ll be watching those anyway, so here are a couple of things outside of that to be tracking.)

Texas A&M at Ole Miss, April 25-27

Right before both teams host MSU in consecutive weekends, these two play each other. Texas A&M is 9-5-1 with a manageable series at South Carolina before the Ole Miss series; the Rebels are 9-6 with Auburn in between them and hosting Texas A&M.

This is especially true if Texas A&M takes the series with the Rebels, but in any case, this series should make the picture much more clear for MSU in terms of who its top competition in the SEC West will be. And that competition could be on tap for MSU right after this series, if the Aggies win it before hosting the Bulldogs.

Vanderbilt

Given all but one team in the SEC West has a winning record in league play, it’s understandable that so much attention is being paid to the division, but Vanderbilt is far from out of this picture.

Second in the SEC East right now behind Georgia, the Commodores actually have a pretty favorable draw to stack up some wins: at Alabama (4-11), Auburn (8-7), at South Carolina (4-11), Missouri (7-7-1) and at Kentucky (4-11) to finish. With that tame of a schedule and just a one-game deficit to Georgia, I won’t be surprised to see Vandy atop the SEC East and as MSU’s potential competition for the SEC regular season title.

Full Count, Week 8: 3 Lineup Spots of Contention, 2 Underappreciated Elements

Super Bulldog Weekend is upon us and Starkville will be flooded with people who are forced to make their trips to Starkville less regular than others. They’re coming to town at a time when the team is clearly good, but also containing a few interesting questions to answer with its recent daily lineup shuffling. Let’s run through those things, shall we?

3 Lineup Spots of Contention and State’s Options

No. 2 and No. 3

Jake Mangum is Mississippi State’s career hits leader and is on pace to become the SEC’s hits leader by the end of the month. He won the batting title as a freshman, had the best season of his career as a junior — and is still on pace to be better this year. The No. 1 spot is fine.

Elijah MacNamee is on a 10-game hit streak and a 28-game reached base streak. He has twice as many multi-hit games (14) as he has hitless games (seven). The cleanup spot is fine.

What happens in between them is where MSU is looking for stability.

It’s probably going to be some combination of Jordan Westburg, Tanner Allen and Rowdey Jordan, but three different combinations were used in the Tennessee series. Up until now it’s been pretty self-explanatory based on which ones were hitting and which ones were not at the given time, but now there’s no telling what to do with Tanner Allen.

Allen’s slump led to his bump down the lineup (which didn’t seem to help matters), but then they move him up in the lineup a day after going 0-for-4 just to see him deliver three hits and a homer. It would have been easy to have some Jordan-Westburg combo in those spots until Allen flashed some life up in the order.

Admittedly, this is kind of a tame “problem,” if you even want to label it as such. It’s possible this is a controlled chaos situation, where the guys move where they belong based on recent production and do so all season, fluctuating back and forth comfortably; maybe the production eventually settles and they can fit one slot for the final six weeks.

Really, it’s more of a convenience thing for the coaching staff. Finding something steady in those spots would surely make the day-to-day a little easier on everyone.

2nd base

There is obvious potential in Gunner Halter’s hit tool, but it’s simply not coming through right now: he’s got one hit in his last 16 at-bats, with seven of those 15 outs coming on strikeouts. This is the same guy that recognized defense as his weakness relative to his bat in the fall; thus, the bat is what has to keep him in the lineup every day.

(I feel it’s important to take a quick moment to point this out: fielding percentage is far from a perfect stat, but it’s as good as we can get in college baseball, and Halter’s [.936] is favorable to Justin Foscue’s [.906] and Jordan Westburg’s [.922]. We’re going to stay transparent here, no exceptions.)

MSU’s options:

 - Halter hits again. That’d be nice, wouldn’t it? This is the most attractive option for several reasons: it makes the bench deeper (it can’t be as deep if Halter is on it because he’s slumping), the double play combo of six weeks stays in tact and Foscue can stay at the position he’s played for his entire State career.

 - Foscue at 2nd and Marshall Gilbert at 3rd. This is nice because it gives a current .300 hitter (Gilbert) more ABs, after just 40 through MSU’s first 33 games. It also lessens the log jam at catcher and maybe you could use Halter as a pinch runner. It’s dependent on both moving parts being competent in their new positions, but it’s realistic, to say the least.

 - Landon Jordan takes over at second base. This one’s pretty clean, too: if he hits and he defends, all’s well that ends well.

 - Finally, let me work through this one. Say Josh Hatcher starts hitting well (at first as a DH), Tanner Allen gets going again and more struggles at second base prompt the switch: Allen from first to second, Hatcher in at first. First of all, how fun would it be to have Hatcher and Cumbest in the same lineup? To be clear, I think this option is unlikely, but it is one, and I think it’s the last realistic one. There may be some other ideas floating around out there in Crazy Fan Twitter, but this is the option that meets the line between unrealistic and possible.

DH

Bulldog designated hitters (and the pinch hitters in their place) went 1-for-10 against Tennessee, and it wasn’t for a lack of trying: those 10 ABs were spread through four guys.

The options are exactly what you think they are: Hatcher, Cumbest, Landon Jordan, Hayden Jones and Gilbert (when he’s not playing third or catching). There’s a button to be pressed here to get this thing clicking, and this coaching staff has shown no hesitation in pressing buttons and changing things.

Two Underappreciated Elements

Friday night fireworks

The four Friday night starters MSU has faced — Florida’s Tommy Mace, Auburn’s Tanner Burns, LSU’s Zack Hess and Tennessee’s Garrett Stallings — have this combined line against the Bulldogs: 23.1 innings, 25 hits, nine walks (1.457 WHIP), 15 earned runs allowed (5.79 ERA).

Keep in mind: even with those performances, two of them (Stallings and Burns) are still top 15 in the SEC in ERA. The Bulldogs are taking awesome pitchers and beating them up.

Trysten Barlow

Folks, this lefty just had his worst outing of the season and he still has the best ERA on the team among pitchers with at least 1 inning pitched.

His ERA jumped by over a run and it’s still under 2.00.

23 strikeouts, 1 walk. If I saw that in a video game I would say it’s not realistic, and Barlow is doing it in the SEC.

His seven appearances against SEC competition: 8.2 innings, seven hits, two earned runs allowed (2.08 ERA), no walks, 11 strikeouts. And with the two rough outings Jack Eagan had before he got back on track against Tennessee, Barlow was effectively the only lefty out of the pen. This guy deserves public acclaim for what he’s doing.

Full Count, Week 7: 2 Reasons for Frustration, 2 Reasons to Calm Down

After a series as disappointing as that one against LSU, there is going to be some groaning surrounding a team that had previously been dominant. That being the case, we’re going to address what is real and what is not, and we’re only doing two of each (as opposed to three of one and two of the other) just to be fair.

Two Places to Be Disappointed

Defense

Seven errors in a weekend just ain’t good. The team was already in the lower half of the SEC in fielding percentage (.970) going into that Saturday game in which it added three more errors; Vanderbilt had 15 errors all season entering Saturday, and MSU almost had half of that in three games.

For a team with aspirations as high as this one’s, the defensive performance we saw this weekend — if sustained for any significant period of time — can prevent them from reaching those goals, and they know that. It’s likely to be a big emphasis for them going forward, but I’m stopping short of a full-on crisis, for reasons we’ll get into later in this post. 

Tanner Allen

That awesome opening weekend was quite the moment, but it’s a distant memory at this point. Since then he’s hit .211 and his doubles per at-bat pace in that span is slightly below what it was for his entire freshman season. It’s not like he’s disappeared entirely — he did have two hits with two RBI in the Southern Miss rubber match, plus 2-for-5 in both of the wins at Florida — but the large sample size is clearly not kind.

Here’s where I use the same refrain from Rowdey Jordan’s slump to start the year. Tanner Allen is not suddenly a bad hitter, he just has something to figure out, and I think he will. (On the optimistic side, it’s worth pointing out his strikeouts are way, way down. He struck out in 22.5 percent of his at-bats last year; this year, that number is 13.6 percent. Contact will eventually lead to hits for Allen.)

Two Places To Relax

Bullpen Performance

One bad weekend does not make a bullpen bad. Yes, the entire pitching staff allowing 13 walks over the weekend and seeing the ERA climb nearly half a run (2.92 to 3.34) is not desirable, but even after that, the top four relievers in innings pitched (Jared Liebelt, Brandon Smith, Cole Gordon and Trysten Barlow, in that order) still have a combined ERA of 3.36 and a WHIP of 1.076. The numbers may not be as dominant as they once were, but they’re not objectively bad, either.

If you take this weekend appearance by appearance, there were actually some good moments for the bullpen. Each of the Thursday relievers got MSU out of jams: Barlow inherited runners on first and second with no outs and retired three straight; Liebelt inherited the bases loaded with one out and ended the inning without allowing a run; Gordon came in after LSU scored three runs and recorded the final out of the inning to stop the bleeding.

All of them were stretched beyond the initial heroics to results not as strong, but that’s kind of a no-win situation for a coach. If you ride the hot hand but they give up hits, you’re criticized for not going to someone new to start a fresh inning; if you give someone else the clean inning and they struggle, you’re criticized for taking a hot hand off the mound. Plus, all three of those guys have shown the ability to go more than three outs strong this season, so I still find the ideology to be strong.

Now, I won’t pump sunshine forever. The next two opponents, Tennessee and Alabama, have team batting averages slightly worse than LSU’s — solely because LSU skyrocketed over the weekend. If runs continue pouring in against those two teams, then I’ll join in on the conversation of a subpar bullpen and what to do about it. But folks, the time for that conversation is not now.

Massive Defensive Overhaul

I’ve seen a lot of fans propose radical defensive shifts, personnel changes and both as ways to fix what the defense was this weekend, and I don’t think it’s quite time for that. Let’s go through some reasons why.

First, this kind of weekend does happen to teams sometimes. Last year’s Bulldogs committed eight errors in being swept by Vanderbilt, committed six in losing the series to Texas A&M and even committed six in the first three games of the Tallahassee Regional — you know, the regional they won on the way to Omaha.

Other teams of similar excellence also had stretches like this. Texas committed four errors in a two-game set with Arkansas, Washington committed eight in a four-game stint with Illinois State and Arkansas committed seven in the three-game Tony Gwynn Classic; all three of those teams made it to Omaha. Most teams have stretches like this, so I think it’s important to make sure this is more than just that bad stretch before they smash the reset button on the entire lineup.

The change I often see from fans on Twitter is getting Jordan Westburg out of shortstop in favor of Gunner Halter. Yeah, Westburg did not have a good weekend defensively, by his own admission, but hold your horses here folks. Halter said in the fall defense was not his strong suit, and frankly his defense at second base has not been as good as Hunter Stovall’s was. Yes, that’s probably an unfair standard to hold someone to, but if you’re going to unseat a shortstop for someone, wouldn’t you want them to exhibit that level of defense at their current position?

Furthermore, not all of this is simply misplaying balls. Two plays stick out in my mind: the two run-ins Rowdey Jordan was involved in, one collision with Jake Mangum and the one where his glove and Westburg’s hit each other, causing the ball to come out. That’s not a skill or misalignment thing, that’s a communication thing, and that’s exactly what Westburg said after the game. That can be fixed without going through all the potential fallout of a reboot.

If this kind of performance continues, then yes, there will be some moves that need to be made. Maybe my take of Tanner Allen providing more defensive value somewhere other than first base can finally be tested, among others. But I don’t think this weekend merits that yet. This needs to become more than a one weekend problem before it’s treated as a more than one weekend problem.